BOM and reality do not get along!

A Special Conference on the 2018 Australian drought is being held in Canberra today the 26th of October 2018. At this conference, a representative of BOM confidently informed the gathered participants that “the timing, duration, and intensity of rainfall [in Australia] was [totally] unpredictable..”.

Now here is the actual reality.


The Moon’s orbit is tilted by approximately five degrees compared to the Earth-Sun plane. The net effect of this is that the strength of Lunar-tides at a given latitude on the Earth’s surface varies in strength over a cycle of 18.6 years. This 18.6-year Draconic cycle is also clearly evident in the small changes that take place in the rate of rotation of the Earth.

The above graph clearly shows that Victoria experienced increased annual precipitation around 1917, (1936), 1955, 1973-74, 1992, and 2010-11. These years are separated by ~ 18.6 years and occur at times which correspond to peaks in the strength of the Draconic tides.

Why is the Australian BOM ignoring this obvious piece of evidence that connects the annual rainfall in Victoria to long-term changes in the Lunar Tides?

Will they be ready for the next period of increased precipitation around 2029?

Please refer to the following papers for a possible explanation of this phenomenon:

Wilson, I.R.G.Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60

Wilson, I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S, Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the 
Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal,
2013, 7, 51-76

Wilson, I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S.A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2


Why do temperature anomalies in the North Pacific correlate with changes in the Earth’s LOD?


Here is something to wet the pallet.

What you see (above) is a plot of the smoothed (w/85 month filter) sea surface temperature anomalies of the Northern Pacific (0 to 65 Deg N) between January 1854 and May 2008 (top graph) plotted above the Earth’s LOD (Length-of-Day). Note that the LOD has been shifted by roughly 8 years forward in time compared to the sea surface temperature anomaly data. Note the remarkable correlation between these two parameters.

Subtle variations in the Earth’s LOD appear to be followed eight years later by similar variations in the sea surface temperatures. Also, note that I am not claiming that correlation means causation.

In fact, I will try to show that both of these parameters are in fact driven by long-term variations in the lunar tides.